A leading industry observer has predicted that EA's Battlefield 6 is "extremely likely" to outsell Activision's Call of Duty: Black Ops 7 in the US to finish as the year's No. 1 best-selling game.
Prior to the release of Battlefield 6 in October and Black Ops 7 in November, industry experts predicted that Black Ops 7 would come out on top. But new data has arrived pointing to Black Ops 7's sales struggles, and now Mat Piscatella of Circana has told IGN that EA's game will likely be the best-seller.
It would be just the second time since 2018 that a Call of Duty game would be outsold in the US. The last time it happened was 2023, when Hogwarts Legacy beat Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3. Before that, Red Dead Redemption II came out on top in 2018, with Black Ops 4 at No. 2.
2024's Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 was the year's best-selling game in the US, and it achieved that despite being the first Call of Duty game to launch into Game Pass. The game reportedly lost out on $300 million in revenue due to Game Pass. Circana's lists are ranked by revenue, not unit sales.
Through November 29, Black Ops 7 is the No. 7 best-selling game of 2025 in the US, with Battlefield 6 holding steady at No. 1. In terms of unit sales, EA confirmed only that Battlefield 6 sold 7 million copies out of the gate. A subsequent report said the figure rose to 10 million.
Activision, meanwhile, has not disclosed any specific sales numbers for Black Ops 7. And even these figures were disclosed, it wouldn't tell the whole story due to Game Pass. Another element at play is that Battlefield 6 is only available on PC, PS5, and Xbox Series X|S, while Black Ops 7 is on those platforms, along with two more: PS4 and Xbox One.
Prior to the launches of Battlefield 6 and Black Ops 7, analyst Rhys Elliott said the new Call of Duty game would likely finish 2025 on top due in part to "autopilot purchasing" trends, where people buy new Call of Duty games out of habit, even if they complain about a lack of new features or innovation.
Elliott is discussing global sales, while Circana's reports only cover North America. Circana will release its report for December 2025 and full-year 2025 North American game sales in January, and if Battlefield 6 comes out on top, that won't necessarily mean it beat Black Ops 7 globally.
Call of Duty provides more value to Microsoft and Xbox than full-game sales alone, as people may sign up for Game Pass to play the game, thus creating new revenue for Microsoft. With Game Pass recently going up $30/month, Microsoft would need someone to stay subscribed for less than 2.5 months to bring in the cost of Black Ops 7 at full price ($70), assuming people pay full price for the membership and the game.
In any event, Black Ops 7 is clearly not the sale success that Activision and Microsoft would have wanted based on full-game sales, something that's evident because the game is already significantly marked down. Additionally, Activision has said it will no longer release Call of Duty games in the same sub-series, like Modern Warfare or Black Ops, in consecutive years. While Black Ops 7's sales may have been lower this year, the Call of Duty franchise remains the biggest franchise for Xbox Game Pass.
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Prior to the release of Battlefield 6 in October and Black Ops 7 in November, industry experts predicted that Black Ops 7 would come out on top. But new data has arrived pointing to Black Ops 7's sales struggles, and now Mat Piscatella of Circana has told IGN that EA's game will likely be the best-seller.
It would be just the second time since 2018 that a Call of Duty game would be outsold in the US. The last time it happened was 2023, when Hogwarts Legacy beat Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3. Before that, Red Dead Redemption II came out on top in 2018, with Black Ops 4 at No. 2.
2024's Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 was the year's best-selling game in the US, and it achieved that despite being the first Call of Duty game to launch into Game Pass. The game reportedly lost out on $300 million in revenue due to Game Pass. Circana's lists are ranked by revenue, not unit sales.
Through November 29, Black Ops 7 is the No. 7 best-selling game of 2025 in the US, with Battlefield 6 holding steady at No. 1. In terms of unit sales, EA confirmed only that Battlefield 6 sold 7 million copies out of the gate. A subsequent report said the figure rose to 10 million.
Activision, meanwhile, has not disclosed any specific sales numbers for Black Ops 7. And even these figures were disclosed, it wouldn't tell the whole story due to Game Pass. Another element at play is that Battlefield 6 is only available on PC, PS5, and Xbox Series X|S, while Black Ops 7 is on those platforms, along with two more: PS4 and Xbox One.
Prior to the launches of Battlefield 6 and Black Ops 7, analyst Rhys Elliott said the new Call of Duty game would likely finish 2025 on top due in part to "autopilot purchasing" trends, where people buy new Call of Duty games out of habit, even if they complain about a lack of new features or innovation.
Elliott is discussing global sales, while Circana's reports only cover North America. Circana will release its report for December 2025 and full-year 2025 North American game sales in January, and if Battlefield 6 comes out on top, that won't necessarily mean it beat Black Ops 7 globally.
Call of Duty provides more value to Microsoft and Xbox than full-game sales alone, as people may sign up for Game Pass to play the game, thus creating new revenue for Microsoft. With Game Pass recently going up $30/month, Microsoft would need someone to stay subscribed for less than 2.5 months to bring in the cost of Black Ops 7 at full price ($70), assuming people pay full price for the membership and the game.
In any event, Black Ops 7 is clearly not the sale success that Activision and Microsoft would have wanted based on full-game sales, something that's evident because the game is already significantly marked down. Additionally, Activision has said it will no longer release Call of Duty games in the same sub-series, like Modern Warfare or Black Ops, in consecutive years. While Black Ops 7's sales may have been lower this year, the Call of Duty franchise remains the biggest franchise for Xbox Game Pass.
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