Video game research firm DFC Intelligence has released its newest report, spotlighting how the GTA 6 delay and the launch of the Switch 2 may impact the video game industry's fortunes this year.
Beginning with GTA 6, DFC said the delay of GTA 6 from Fall 2025 to May 2026 is "particularly impactful" in part because it was expected to help lift sales of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S during the holidays. Read on to see a full breakdown of what the DFC report said about GTA 6, the Switch 2, and more.
DFC's David Cole told Bloomberg that the GTA 6 delay is a "real blow to the PS5" this year in part because the game is expected to convince "consumers to get off the PS4 and on to a PS5."
GTA 6 is also expected to help lift Xbox Series X|S sales, and now that forecasted jump in hardware sales is expected in 2026, not 2025. The impact of the delay out of 2025 is substantial, and not just for hardware.
Ampere Analysis told The Game Business that GTA 6's delay has prompted the company to reduce its overall sales volume prediction for PS5 and Xbox Series X|S in 2025 by 700,000 units. The company also forecast PlayStation and Xbox game sales to slide by 21 million units, with the total worldwide gaming industry missing out on $2.7 billion in revenue due to GTA 6's delay.
"The drop is quite significant," Ampere's Piers Harding-Rolls said. "You would expect people to spend on other things [instead]. But that kind of transfer will not be entirely. There will be a significant impact."
GTA 6 is expected to be a gigantic hit, with DFC previously predicting it would sell 40 million copies in its first year. But now that it's delayed to 2026, DFC is projecting total North American software sales to decline 2% compared to 2024, with European software sales staying flat year-over-year. DFC was previously forecasting a "nice uptick" in percentage growth for 2025, due in part to the arrival of GTA 6 and the debut of the Switch 2.
The new GTA 6 trailer was captured on a PS5 and featured multiple in-game references to PlayStation, prompting some to theorize that Sony may have a deal with Rockstar Games to promote the game. Any such financial benefit for Sony from a possible deal will seemingly now come in 2026, not 2025.
Nintendo's new console remains on track for release on June 5, and DFC said it is "arguably the most important product launch in video game history."
Not only does DFC expect it to be the fastest-selling console system ever, but it has the potential to lift a video game industry that has been grappling with product delays, rising costs, and economic uncertainty," the firm said.
In Japan, DFC predicted that the local market will see a 25% increase in console software revenue in 2025 due in part to Nintendo "aggressively" pricing the console for the region. Nintendo previously announced a less expensive, Japan-only version of the Switch 2.
While PS5 and Xbox Series X|S console sales may post negative growth numbers for 2024, forecasted growth in Japan thanks in part to the Switch 2 could help the overall global console market grow by 3% in 2025, DFC said.
DFC also revised its unit-sales forecast for the Switch 2 in 2025, rising from 15 million to 16 million units. DFC said Nintendo could sell as many as 20 million units in 2025 "if manufacturing could meet demand," but DFC said this may be "unlikely" due to Nintendo's expected push to "take a conservative approach to inventory."
For its part, Nintendo has officially forecast Switch 2 sales of 15 million units by the end of March 2026, but DFC reminded everyone that Nintendo is known to be conservative in its forecast. As an example of this conservatism, DFC also reminds us that Nintendo forecast sales of 10 million units for the original Switch's first fiscal year and went on to sell 15 million.
"Based on that track record, the fact that Nintendo is forecasting a 15 million unit number gives us confidence that they will be able to ramp up supply and navigate tariff challenges," DFC said.
Regarding those tariff challenges, Nintendo recently warned of "tens of billions" in potential negative profit impact due to tariffs. However, Nintendo made this assumption based on the tariff situation in early April, and just recently, the US and China reached a deal at massively lower tariff rates.
DFC's report also included further-out predictions for where the gaming industry may be headed over the next 4-5 years. DFC said demand remains strong for gaming, noting that when GTA 6 launches in May 2026, it "should help drive the industry to further heights." From 2026-2029, DFC said it's predicting that the video game industry sets "new hardware and software sales records."
"Meanwhile, the Switch 2, along with the growth of mobile PC game devices, is redefining the landscape of the video game industry. Nintendo can no longer be considered as playing in its own separate space. With the Switch 2, Nintendo is positioning itself as a central player in the broader console and PC gaming ecosystem," DFC said.
For the Switch 2 specifically, DFC said it's forecasting sales of 100 million units or more by the end of 2029, which would make it the "leading console system by a wide margin."
"The next few years could see Nintendo for the first time becoming the primary partner for third-party game publishers," DFC said.
Source
Beginning with GTA 6, DFC said the delay of GTA 6 from Fall 2025 to May 2026 is "particularly impactful" in part because it was expected to help lift sales of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S during the holidays. Read on to see a full breakdown of what the DFC report said about GTA 6, the Switch 2, and more.
A "real blow" to PS5
DFC's David Cole told Bloomberg that the GTA 6 delay is a "real blow to the PS5" this year in part because the game is expected to convince "consumers to get off the PS4 and on to a PS5."
GTA 6 is also expected to help lift Xbox Series X|S sales, and now that forecasted jump in hardware sales is expected in 2026, not 2025. The impact of the delay out of 2025 is substantial, and not just for hardware.
Ampere Analysis told The Game Business that GTA 6's delay has prompted the company to reduce its overall sales volume prediction for PS5 and Xbox Series X|S in 2025 by 700,000 units. The company also forecast PlayStation and Xbox game sales to slide by 21 million units, with the total worldwide gaming industry missing out on $2.7 billion in revenue due to GTA 6's delay.
"The drop is quite significant," Ampere's Piers Harding-Rolls said. "You would expect people to spend on other things [instead]. But that kind of transfer will not be entirely. There will be a significant impact."
GTA 6 is expected to be a gigantic hit, with DFC previously predicting it would sell 40 million copies in its first year. But now that it's delayed to 2026, DFC is projecting total North American software sales to decline 2% compared to 2024, with European software sales staying flat year-over-year. DFC was previously forecasting a "nice uptick" in percentage growth for 2025, due in part to the arrival of GTA 6 and the debut of the Switch 2.
The new GTA 6 trailer was captured on a PS5 and featured multiple in-game references to PlayStation, prompting some to theorize that Sony may have a deal with Rockstar Games to promote the game. Any such financial benefit for Sony from a possible deal will seemingly now come in 2026, not 2025.
Switch 2 may be the "most important product launch" of all time in gaming
Nintendo's new console remains on track for release on June 5, and DFC said it is "arguably the most important product launch in video game history."
Not only does DFC expect it to be the fastest-selling console system ever, but it has the potential to lift a video game industry that has been grappling with product delays, rising costs, and economic uncertainty," the firm said.
In Japan, DFC predicted that the local market will see a 25% increase in console software revenue in 2025 due in part to Nintendo "aggressively" pricing the console for the region. Nintendo previously announced a less expensive, Japan-only version of the Switch 2.
While PS5 and Xbox Series X|S console sales may post negative growth numbers for 2024, forecasted growth in Japan thanks in part to the Switch 2 could help the overall global console market grow by 3% in 2025, DFC said.
DFC also revised its unit-sales forecast for the Switch 2 in 2025, rising from 15 million to 16 million units. DFC said Nintendo could sell as many as 20 million units in 2025 "if manufacturing could meet demand," but DFC said this may be "unlikely" due to Nintendo's expected push to "take a conservative approach to inventory."
For its part, Nintendo has officially forecast Switch 2 sales of 15 million units by the end of March 2026, but DFC reminded everyone that Nintendo is known to be conservative in its forecast. As an example of this conservatism, DFC also reminds us that Nintendo forecast sales of 10 million units for the original Switch's first fiscal year and went on to sell 15 million.
"Based on that track record, the fact that Nintendo is forecasting a 15 million unit number gives us confidence that they will be able to ramp up supply and navigate tariff challenges," DFC said.
Regarding those tariff challenges, Nintendo recently warned of "tens of billions" in potential negative profit impact due to tariffs. However, Nintendo made this assumption based on the tariff situation in early April, and just recently, the US and China reached a deal at massively lower tariff rates.
Looking further out
DFC's report also included further-out predictions for where the gaming industry may be headed over the next 4-5 years. DFC said demand remains strong for gaming, noting that when GTA 6 launches in May 2026, it "should help drive the industry to further heights." From 2026-2029, DFC said it's predicting that the video game industry sets "new hardware and software sales records."
"Meanwhile, the Switch 2, along with the growth of mobile PC game devices, is redefining the landscape of the video game industry. Nintendo can no longer be considered as playing in its own separate space. With the Switch 2, Nintendo is positioning itself as a central player in the broader console and PC gaming ecosystem," DFC said.
For the Switch 2 specifically, DFC said it's forecasting sales of 100 million units or more by the end of 2029, which would make it the "leading console system by a wide margin."
"The next few years could see Nintendo for the first time becoming the primary partner for third-party game publishers," DFC said.
Source